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  • #46
    These are all good points that I agree with.

    Still, I think the impact of people getting sick and going to the hospital or their doctor is going up no matter if they are tested or not.

    I also agree that it is going to be interesting to see how long people will actually abide by the guidelines set forth by the states. I mean, there just comes a time where people will likely throw up their arms and say, as you said, "fuck it."


    Skip

    Originally posted by LKQSJH View Post

    Over a month, yes they have increased sharply but seems most agree that is due to more access to testing. Once testing has become widely available, the daily growth rate doesn't appear to be exponential though.

    All from the WHO this weeks new cases

    03/16 - 13,903
    03/17 - 11,525
    03/18 - 15,123
    03/19 - 16,556


    One one hand its easy to say "holy shit, that's 57k new cases in past 4 days" and why I do think we should take it serious and continue to watch for trends. On a global level though if 20k new cases are confirmed each day that is .00026% of the global population. Still hard for me to wrap my head around half of the USA getting this when I have not seen any trends in any other country that give any indication of that up to this point. First reported case was tracked back to 11/17 in China. I know we can't believe 1/2 of whats coming out of China but they are being heavily criticized for the lack of precaution/actions taken to prevent spread once they identified and it just sure seems like China should have been destroyed by this over past 4 months if we are to believe 50% of America will get it.


    Just another thought, I think a vast number of people are only going to go along with these mandates for a short time before saying "F**k it, i'll take my chances." Not saying that's the right thing to do and I know they are trying to push money out to these people which will help calm some but for small biz owners they can only shut down for so long. I heard on radio yesterday there is movement of 20-30 year olds already starting that want to infection administered, do their 14 days in quarantine, and go on about life. I know that's just stupid talk (aka raid area 51 crowd) but these are the people who aren't going to stay home much longer especially if places are open. Locally here in NC they started by saying 2 weeks. The governor said yesterday they were thinking 8 weeks. I don't know that people will comply with this that long. I personally know small biz owners who are already debating opening with a sign on the door that says "Enter at own risk". I have heard some debate on if forcing business to shut down is a violation of the 5th amendment which says "nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation." Technically the gov. isn't taking the property for public use, but they are taking away the right to use the property so becomes interpretation of the law.











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    • #47
      One more thing I have been thinking about as there are more and more restrictions and please understand that I take this all very seriously and that I support the restrictions, so far:

      It has occurred to me that I wonder why they didn't just mandate the vulnerable portion of society to stay home under self-quarantine vs. the entire population. This way, if you didn't abide by the restrictions and you got sick, it would be on that person and they would be responsible. Yes, everyone can carry the virus but if the vulnerable population was quarantined, it really wouldn't matter, right?

      I'm just wondering why they didn't use this approach. It makes me wonder how bad this virus really is and if we are all underestimating it to a large degree.

      Just thinking out loud.


      Skip


      Facebook: Skip Hill
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      • #48
        I agree on the quarantine for the vulnerable. I told my wife when the shutdown started it seemed to me like the older population and those with pre-existing conditions should do everything they can to self quarantine regardless if it is mandated or not. The median age of death on this is 79.5 so def. hitting the elders much harder.

        Not sure how many are following the numbers but 24k new cases reported yesterday. Thats a pretty big jump from the previous days so will be interesting to watch the trend and see.

        Biggest concern i have right now is the talk of there being 2nd waves of this. If we slow this one but then it fires back up in the fall they cant just repeat the process they have this time. This is destroying the economy which most are fine with (short term) if we save large amounts of lives but they need to be seriously trying to get the number of hospital beds and ventilators up as fast as possible. I know its a staff issue as well but all resources need to be going to expand the amount of patients who can be cared for.
        6/22/13 - 2013 NPC VICTORY CLASSIC
        1st - Novice Men's Lightheavy & Novice overall

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        • #49
          Great points from everyone. I don't think we are underestimating it. 4 senators sold millions of dollars of stock shares the same day they were briefed. They knew it wasn't gonna be a small thing.
          As far as economy going into the shitter, I don't see this ending well. Too many have already lost their jobs, and they are also the least likely to have any decent savings. This is why gun and ammo sales have skyrocketed. I personally started prepping many years ago for an economic collapse.
          What concerns me is our vulnerability, our military. If too many of them get it, it's a major weakness. Not to mention we are distracted with this mess. Russia has hardly any cases(at least from what they are reporting) which may or may not be accurate. They will not project any weakness. We on the other hand are an open book to the world and our enemies. These nations will not hesitate to exploit our weakness.
          Just thinking out loud too, like Skip.
          Last edited by doug1; 03-21-2020, 04:55 PM.

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          • #50
            Honestly haven't been following state to state mandates too closely but the NC Governor just did a press conference and is signing a bill to close schools through 05/15. As someone with 2 school age kids starting our 2nd week out, its a big pill to swallow that we have 10 weeks of this to deal with at a minimum. With no childcare facilities open (like summer time programs) its a real challenge for a ton of people. With myself and my wife still working we have been using help from friends and grandparents during this time which is somewhat frustrating because the grandparents are the ones I am most concerned about catching this. Other option is for either myself or my wife to quit our jobs to stay with the kids which is a pretty crappy option as well.

            New order also closes salons/barber shops, gyms, massage centers, movie theaters, and bans any gathering over 50 people effective Wed. but didn't specify in the press conference if that was also through 5/15 or not. Sure more details will come out about this once the bill is available to read.
            6/22/13 - 2013 NPC VICTORY CLASSIC
            1st - Novice Men's Lightheavy & Novice overall

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            • #51
              I admit that I was a little disappointed to hear that the Colorado governor caved to the citizens and reneged on closing liquor stores and dispensaries.

              I understand that the gyms involve sweat and heavy breathing, etc, but I would much prefer to be in a gym than I would a packed grocery store right now or for that matter a packed liquor store. People can't function without pot and alcohol? WTF??

              This is all getting a little weird.


              Skip


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              • #52
                Originally posted by Ken "Skip" Hill View Post
                I admit that I was a little disappointed to hear that the Colorado governor caved to the citizens and reneged on closing liquor stores and dispensaries.

                I understand that the gyms involve sweat and heavy breathing, etc, but I would much prefer to be in a gym than I would a packed grocery store right now or for that matter a packed liquor store. People can't function without pot and alcohol? WTF??

                This is all getting a little weird.


                Skip
                Lol, so true guess those are deemed "essential" now. In NC all liquor is distributed through the ABC and they are not allowing people in the store but you can go up to the door, they will take the order then go grab it and bring it back to you at the door. I didn't leave home but heard the parking lot was packed this weekend.

                To add to it getting weird just this morning while doing my cardio and watching the news they ran a story that the CATS (charlotte trans system) will now be offering free public transit on all the buses and rail systems. The very next story was about the governor of SC signing a bill yesterday that anyone in a gathering of 3 or more people can now be charged with a misdemeanor. He went on to say this will be heavily enforced. Charlotte is 20-30 mins from SC so local news covers upstate SC as well as NC news. How the hell can SC be good with charging people of a crime meanwhile 30 mins away Charlotte is giving incentives to go ride public transit which has an express route that goes from downtown Charlotte to Rock Hill SC, As skip would say, dafuk?
                6/22/13 - 2013 NPC VICTORY CLASSIC
                1st - Novice Men's Lightheavy & Novice overall

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                • #53
                  If anyone has ever been to Canada, in the province of Ontario, we have a company called The Beer Store. This is where you go to buy beer. This is the company I work for. You can also purchase it at the LCBO stores (Liquor Control Board of Ontario) and recently we started putting it into grocery stores. I won't get into the history and logistics of all this, it was merely a preface to what I'm about to say.

                  Our government has issued a state of emergency and mandated that all non-essential business be closed for 14 days. We have been deemed a necessity, as have cannabis stores. The official statement being that we have to recognize that people in our community have dependency issues on drugs and alcohol. The hospitals are chaos right now and they don't want addicts in withdrawal taking up beds and resources. They also don't want to risk looting. I can tell you that the prevailing response to this from people is "fuck those people" and it's a silver lining for them to die as they were bleeding the system dry pre-pandemic with poor choices they made in life. The unofficial statement is that this is a money-driven decision as sales are insane right now, fuel costs are down, and tax revenue would be ridiculous. All of which I find absolutely disgusting at a time like this.

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                  • #54
                    Gym Speakeasies.

                    Someone make this happen.

                    (And admittedly I'm actually trying by calling gym owners direct and trying to broker a deal).

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                    • #55
                      Everyone seems to have an opinion on the severity of the virus. Some people think it's the end of the world and are in full-blown panic mode, some people are dismissive and not worried, and some people fall somewhere in between. The plain facts, no matter what you believe, are this:

                      - It is a problem
                      - People are dying
                      - There's no vaccine
                      - Staying home helps

                      Your typical day-to-day life is on hold for now. Accept it. The more people adhere to staying home, the less drastic measures need to be taken. People are ignoring this. India just enforced a complete and total lockdown for 21 days. That means no leaving at all. We don't want the other countries to have to get to this point. The chaos would be even more insane for supplies.

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                      • #56
                        There are rats on the lower decks taking on water that are trying to climb to higher decks. Then there are those of us, like me that are on the upper deck. I'm part of the band, playing the violin on the Titanic.. I do lawn care. I was at a property today, cutting grass. There were tons of cars there and people I had never seen in my life, we've taken care of this place for 26 years. Am I really gonna believe that they are gonna pay their HOA fees when they don't even have a job. The only thing important to them is food, not a fee they pay that leads to me getting paid. Let's not bullshit ourselves guys.

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                        • #57
                          In this discussion I've noticed a complete lack of information about what to do to prevent getting it or what to when you do get it. If you get your information from the media or from WHO or from CDC, you are woefully misinformed. Everyone is waiting with baited breath on some Big Pharma company to make a vaccine. A safe vaccine will be more than a year away - based on proper research and proper testing. Of course they can fast track one and throw caution to the wind - but do you want to roll the dice on something that might make your lungs crippled for life - like the vaccine for SARS did in 2005?

                          What they are actively suppressing is that China and South Korea have been using high dose Vitamin C to cure people from the virus. Hundreds if not thousands of people. Shipments of 50 tonnes of Vitamin C have gone into Wuhan, for example (there are pictures easily researched). You can do the same thing at home. But instead of IV Vitamin C (which is only available from hospitals) use liposomal Vitamin C which is just as good at lower doses since your body absorbs it much better. And it's easy to make at home with blender.

                          Or the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine. That needs to be adminstered by a doctor. But people in India are now mandated to take this for prevention. We are so far behind the curve on this - because of Big Pharma influence. They can't make money off this generic drug.

                          Or there is chlorine dioxide. Or calcium hypochlorite. Both need some research on how to take this. But here are 4 treatments that WORK against the virus. Why aren't we able to stop this pandemic tomorrow by using them. Why are they actively suppressed?

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                          • #58
                            [QUOTE=cgjedi;n1595843]In this discussion I've noticed a complete lack of information about what to do to prevent getting it or what to when you do get it. QUOTE]

                            I agree about this. The local government here as well as the cdc are telling people that if you have symptoms or suspect you have covid-19 you should stay home and self quarantine. They are telling people you can call your doctor but not to go in to the doctor or hospital unless you are having respiratory issues. If people abide by this then there are going to be far fewer cases identified vs actual people infected.

                            The positive in this was ran in an article from the WSJ. Two Stanford professors of medicine have been going through the available data and found it plausible that far more people are infected (or have been and recovered) over the amount of confirmed cases. I don't recall all the details as I was listening to people discuss this article on the radio (have to pay to see online), but the cliff notes were that if testing was readily available to all they suspected the fatality rate of this to be very close to the flu. They estimated between 20-40k deaths in the us based on this modeling which is much better than some of the other estimates that have been going around.

                            One thing I have heard over and over is people who feel sure they had this back before it was even "here". I personally know a lady in her early 70's that in early Feb had a cough, fever, fatigue, and shortness of breath. She went to the doctor and tested negative for flu. 2 days later she went back to the dr again and tested negative for flu a second time. Dr. told here it was just a viral infection that would have to run its course but did start her on breathing treatments. I have heard countless others with similar stories about this which makes me wonder if it has been here much longer than we knew. It was first "identified" in China on 11/17. Travel restrictions were not placed on China until the first of Feb. On average we had 250k people a month coming to the US from China.


                            6/22/13 - 2013 NPC VICTORY CLASSIC
                            1st - Novice Men's Lightheavy & Novice overall

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                            • #59
                              [QUOTE=LKQSJH;n1595860]
                              Originally posted by cgjedi View Post
                              In this discussion I've noticed a complete lack of information about what to do to prevent getting it or what to when you do get it. QUOTE]

                              I agree about this. The local government here as well as the cdc are telling people that if you have symptoms or suspect you have covid-19 you should stay home and self quarantine. They are telling people you can call your doctor but not to go in to the doctor or hospital unless you are having respiratory issues. If people abide by this then there are going to be far fewer cases identified vs actual people infected.

                              The positive in this was ran in an article from the WSJ. Two Stanford professors of medicine have been going through the available data and found it plausible that far more people are infected (or have been and recovered) over the amount of confirmed cases. I don't recall all the details as I was listening to people discuss this article on the radio (have to pay to see online), but the cliff notes were that if testing was readily available to all they suspected the fatality rate of this to be very close to the flu. They estimated between 20-40k deaths in the us based on this modeling which is much better than some of the other estimates that have been going around.

                              One thing I have heard over and over is people who feel sure they had this back before it was even "here". I personally know a lady in her early 70's that in early Feb had a cough, fever, fatigue, and shortness of breath. She went to the doctor and tested negative for flu. 2 days later she went back to the dr again and tested negative for flu a second time. Dr. told here it was just a viral infection that would have to run its course but did start her on breathing treatments. I have heard countless others with similar stories about this which makes me wonder if it has been here much longer than we knew. It was first "identified" in China on 11/17. Travel restrictions were not placed on China until the first of Feb. On average we had 250k people a month coming to the US from China.

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                              • #60
                                http://endoftheamericandream.com/arc...solutely-crazy

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